Compare two experiments

First result · 2026-09-06 11:31 UTC

prob / odds-for / odds-against — is a risk a share or a ratio, and which side comes first?

Not yet counting in evidence decisions. This row remains available for assessment, but does not currently carry a counting evidence result.

What was measured

comprehension accuracy · comprehension_accuracy_delta
How does the wording change correct answers from the declared reader panel?

Reported result

-6.5887 percentage points
Reported interval: -13.5074 to 1.0726.

The value is neutral or does not resolve the registered direction.

English comparison

Complete, careful English

Declared by the submitter; not a certification of equivalent information.

Identical contextual facts in both arms; direct complete English for the question asked. Scope and omitted dimensions are explicit in DESIGN.md.

Reader exposure

Reader exposure not recorded as a structured label

Named instruments

mistral-small3.2-24b-opaque-choice-q4_k_m@q4_k_m, gemma3-12b-opaque-choice-q4_k_m@q4_k_m

Reader population not separately declared.

Conditions covered

Separate outcomes retained for all 15 declared conditions

prob:payout, prob:calibration, prob:frequency, prob:causation, prob:rounding, odds-for:payout, odds-for:calibration, odds-for:frequency, odds-for:causation, odds-for:rounding, odds-against:payout, odds-against:calibration, odds-against:frequency, odds-against:causation, odds-against:rounding

An overall average can hide a weak condition. A condition list is not proof that every form or claim in the proposal was tested.

Settlement role

Disputed

Eligible replications disagree and this original does not hold a settlement majority.

How often did each version lead to the right answer?

English comparison: 90.33%; 90.33%
Ainglish version: 83.75%; 83.75%

Reported real-item accuracy, not the separate calibration score. Both bars use the same 0–100% scale. The difference is measured in percentage points, not percent improvement. Any declared stratum weights are already applied.

Reported item-bootstrap interval: -13.5074 to 1.0726 percentage points.

This interval concerns the difference, not separate uncertainty bounds for either accuracy. It does not measure uncertainty across humans or future models.

At least one declared condition is resolution-limited. The overall interval does not settle every condition.

Item-selection sensitivity warning. At least one reported reduced-item check changed direction or fell outside the full-item interval. Keep this warning with the score: the headline interval alone does not resolve sensitivity to which cases were included.

Real cases: 120 · Named readers: 2. These are different units; multiple answers to one case are not new cases.

Does the overall result hide differences between conditions?

Every stored condition, without new pooling. Differences and intervals use percentage points. Condition names come from the frozen experiment.
Condition	Reported difference	Reported interval	English accuracy	Ainglish accuracy
`prob:payout`	34.55	Not recorded	45.45%	80.00%
`prob:calibration`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`prob:frequency`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`prob:causation`	-25	Not recorded	87.50%	62.50%
`prob:rounding`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`odds-for:payout`	-50	Not recorded	100.00%	50.00%
`odds-for:calibration`	-11.11	Not recorded	100.00%	88.89%
`odds-for:frequency`	11.11	Not recorded	88.89%	100.00%
`odds-for:causation`	-30.77	Not recorded	100.00%	69.23%
`odds-for:rounding`	0	Not recorded	100.00%	100.00%
`odds-against:payout`	-15.87	Not recorded	71.43%	55.56%
`odds-against:calibration`	0	Not recorded	87.50%	87.50%
`odds-against:frequency`	16.67	Not recorded	83.33%	100.00%
`odds-against:causation`	-37.5	Not recorded	100.00%	62.50%
`odds-against:rounding`	9.09	Not recorded	90.91%	100.00%

A missing condition interval is not zero uncertainty. An overall interval cannot substitute for agreement in every load-bearing condition.

Inspect externally stored inputs and recorded answers

The comparison label is the submitter’s declaration, not a semantic certification. Check that both versions preserve the information needed to answer the same question.

Numbers count only readable inputs attached to this receipt. They are not the experiment’s declared sample size or the number of reader calls.

The input material is linked externally. The number of study items and controls in that file has not been checked by this website. “External file” does not mean zero inputs.

Open the declared external input artifact. This is an unverified external link, not a hosted or inspected copy.

Declared input digest: 14046a8994a73e8120eaec31f4d24244c6c7b206de0fa51d96162d55312f5333. A recorded digest alone does not establish that the linked file matches it.

The website does not fetch the file. Verify the declared digest recipe before relying on it: SDK item digests use canonical JSON of the item array, not the raw pretty-printed file bytes.

No readable study input pairs are stored inline in this receipt. This does not mean the experiment used none.

Prompts, reference material and other context can live elsewhere in the specification. Inputs and keys alone do not reconstruct every reader call or establish a fair comparison.

Declared population, method and retained outcomes

No structured study scope is declared here. Inspect the immutable manifest; do not infer a comparator or population from the headline.

Absolute arm results, reader-specific results and condition results below are retained values, not a newly pooled analysis. Accuracy arms use fractions from 0 to 1; their difference uses percentage points.

Absolute arm results

{
    "english": 0.9032999999999999918287585387588478624820709228515625,
    "ainglish": 0.83750000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,
    "chance": 0.5
}

Reader or tokenizer results

[
    {
        "model": "mistral-small3.2-24b-opaque-choice-q4_k_m",
        "value": -5.9047000000000000596855898038484156131744384765625,
        "precision": "q4_k_m"
    },
    {
        "model": "gemma3-12b-opaque-choice-q4_k_m",
        "value": -6.06400000000000005684341886080801486968994140625,
        "precision": "q4_k_m"
    }
]

Condition results

[
    {
        "id": "prob:payout",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 34.5499999999999971578290569595992565155029296875,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 0.45450000000000001509903313490212894976139068603515625,
            "ainglish": 0.8000000000000000444089209850062616169452667236328125,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "prob:calibration",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 0,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 1,
            "ainglish": 1,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "ceiling"
    },
    {
        "id": "prob:frequency",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 0,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 1,
            "ainglish": 1,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "ceiling"
    },
    {
        "id": "prob:causation",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": -25,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 0.875,
            "ainglish": 0.625,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "prob:rounding",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 0,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 1,
            "ainglish": 1,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "ceiling"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:payout",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": -50,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 1,
            "ainglish": 0.5,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:calibration",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": -11.1099999999999994315658113919198513031005859375,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 1,
            "ainglish": 0.888900000000000023447910280083306133747100830078125,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:frequency",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 11.1099999999999994315658113919198513031005859375,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 0.888900000000000023447910280083306133747100830078125,
            "ainglish": 1,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:causation",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": -30.769999999999999573674358543939888477325439453125,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 1,
            "ainglish": 0.69230000000000002646771690706373192369937896728515625,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-for:rounding",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 0,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 1,
            "ainglish": 1,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "ceiling"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:payout",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": -15.8699999999999992184029906638897955417633056640625,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 0.71430000000000004600764214046648703515529632568359375,
            "ainglish": 0.55559999999999998276933865781757049262523651123046875,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:calibration",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 0,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 0.875,
            "ainglish": 0.875,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:frequency",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 16.6700000000000017053025658242404460906982421875,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 0.83330000000000004067857162226573564112186431884765625,
            "ainglish": 1,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:causation",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": -37.5,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 1,
            "ainglish": 0.625,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "resolvable"
    },
    {
        "id": "odds-against:rounding",
        "weight": 1,
        "share": 0.06666666666666666574148081281236954964697360992431640625,
        "value": 9.089999999999999857891452847979962825775146484375,
        "value_lo": null,
        "value_hi": null,
        "arms": {
            "english": 0.909100000000000019184653865522705018520355224609375,
            "ainglish": 1,
            "chance": 0.5
        },
        "resolution_bound": "ceiling"
    }
]

Exact result and immutable specification Experiment history

Attempt 638d2aab-f063-48c2-bb8f-7d27ab7af3b4
Content f270857d598a65b32d12b172773219e48e5c71950dc0dd4940f8bfddd081b4ee